2010年1月23日星期六

美国金融交易员的辉煌过去将成为历史



奥巴马左边那个老头就是前FED鼎鼎有名的 Paul Volcker,在1979年突然把美元货款的利息飙涨至20%,让那些发展中国家无力偿还美元债务。奥巴马实行他演讲所谓的『Volcker Rules』是不是逼不得已采取這激进的措施来挽救他最近低落的声望?无独有遇的是,当奥巴马宣布对华尔街肥猫开刀,DJone股市在20号由最高10725掉至10172(5.2%),如果股市继续在下星期调整,会不会让美元资金转去买国债? 卖国债就是美国政府现在最逼切需要解决的问题。



以下是他的大约演讲:-
I welcome constructive input from folks in the financial sector. But what we've seen so far, in recent weeks, is an army of industry lobbyists from Wall Street descending on Capitol Hill to try and block basic and common-sense rules of the road that would protect our economy and the American people.

So if these folks want a fight, it's a fight I'm ready to have. And my resolve is only strengthened when I see a return to old practices at some of the very firms fighting reform; and when I see soaring profits and obscene bonuses at some of the very firms claiming that they can't lend more to small business, they can't keep credit card rates low, they can't pay a fee to refund taxpayers for the bailout without passing on the cost to shareholders or customers -- that's the claims they're making. It's exactly this kind of irresponsibility that makes clear reform is necessary.

First, we should no longer allow banks to stray too far from their central mission of serving their customers. In recent years, too many financial firms have put taxpayer money at risk by operating hedge funds and private equity funds and making riskier investments to reap a quick reward. And these firms have taken these risks while benefiting from special financial privileges that are reserved only for banks.

Our government provides deposit insurance and other safeguards and guarantees to firms that operate banks. We do so because a stable and reliable banking system promotes sustained growth, and because we learned how dangerous the failure of that system can be during the Great Depression.

But these privileges were not created to bestow banks operating hedge funds or private equity funds with an unfair advantage. When banks benefit from the safety net that taxpayers provide –- which includes lower-cost capital –- it is not appropriate for them to turn around and use that cheap money to trade for profit. And that is especially true when this kind of trading often puts banks in direct conflict with their customers' interests.

The fact is, these kinds of trading operations can create enormous and costly risks, endangering the entire bank if things go wrong. We simply cannot accept a system in which hedge funds or private equity firms inside banks can place huge, risky bets that are subsidized by taxpayers and that could pose a conflict of interest. And we cannot accept a system in which shareholders make money on these operations if the bank wins but taxpayers foot the bill if the bank loses.

While the financial system is far stronger today than it was a year one year ago, it is still operating under the exact same rules that led to its near collapse,” said President Barack Obama. “My resolve to reform the system is only strengthened when I see a return to old practices at some of the very firms fighting reform; and when I see record profits at some of the very firms claiming that they cannot lend more to small business, cannot keep credit card rates low, and cannot refund taxpayers for the bailout. It is exactly this kind of irresponsibility that makes clear reform is necessary

The proposal would:
1. Limit the Scope - The President and his economic team will work with Congress to ensure that no bank or financial institution that contains a bank will own, invest in or sponsor a hedge fund or a private equity fund, or proprietary trading operations unrelated to serving customers for its own profit.

2. Limit the Size - The President also announced a new proposal to limit the consolidation of our financial sector. The President’s proposal will place broader limits on the excessive growth of the market share of liabilities at the largest financial firms, to supplement existing caps on the market share of deposits.

2010年1月11日星期一

保险退休计划??



如果你以30年来实现你的退休计划,你将会怎么策划呢?定存加公积金,只要钱存起来省吃省用就好?或是把钱投资在蓝筹股吃利息,分红股和期待30年过后股票价值開几番?信不过纸上财富?宁可买地产收黄金白银?

无论如何,這些投资只要你投资的当,除了能得到不错的利息回酬外,账面价值也随著时间膨胀。对于一些比较注重在事业和对投资沒概念的,通常都会交给专业人士处理他们的财富。从最普偏的民间的標银会,信托基金,共同基金ETF到保险推出的退休计划。

在这篇文章,我觉得我们最不应该买就是保险的退休计划。为何我那么认为呢?我举个例子:很多保险人员都会以whole life policy(终身人寿保单)包装成退休计划賣给一些特定人士。他们会和你说他们的保险退休计划拥有比公积金更好的回酬,加上对死亡,终身残废的保障和36种疾病额免供期等等。如果你碰到这样的保单而你考虑要买的话,请三思:

(1)你的本金需要最少20年才能拿回本。
(2)你所付的钱,和基本保险保障不对比,通常只有提供5倍的保障。
(3)10年的供期沒有任何现金回酬。
(4)红利回酬是不保证的。如果保险公司业绩不好,20年过后只能和你赔笑。
(5)保险退休计划的佣金最少拿掉你120%的本金。
(6)這退休计划是和保险公司斗命长的游戏,只要你在87歲前沒挂掉见阎罗王。保险公司就会为你准备一份特别红利和你庆生。如果有任何不幸........除了陪你死亡利益,就剩下那一丁点可怜的本金。


我就以最差的定存说起,虽然只有3.5%的年利息,但急用钱時本金沒减少。公积金每年派4.5%利息,虽然退休才能拿钱出来,但本金还在,而且雇主还幫你多付一半公积金,每三年还能从户口拿钱出来还房貨。信托基金需要20年才能回本吗?需要付120%佣金吗?

如果你決定拿一笔钱出来投资退休计划,请务必把保险和退休计划分开。以最少的钱买最高的保障(传统保单),然后把剩余的钱投资在你能接受风险范围之下的投资产品吧。别养肥保险人员。

我对2010年的看法 (吹水别认真篇)



『看回过去』的历史,美国和欧洲在不断经历著工业革命,逐渐成为了工业先进国。先进国意味着拥有完善的薪金,福利制度和优越的居住环境。企业为了保持竞争力,都把生产成本转移去劳工低廉的国家。一方面,先进国主导著市场开发,牢牢控制著价格主控权。另一方面,却以更低代价享受低廉的进口产品。

由于先进国和發展中国家的薪金逐渐两极化,世界贸易产品自然会流入购买力强的一方。欧美扮演著舉债消费进口国,而发展中国家著扮演著吸金出口国。久而久之,這造就世界贸易顺差/逆差的严重不平衡。至今,中国成为美国最大的债主。



谁搬走了我的奶酪?
------------------------------
中国赢了上半场,低估的人民币和低廉劳工让欧美国家毫无逆转成为世界贸易逆差的受害者。最近,一些经济学家如克鲁曼就高调斥责中国是个没有风度的经济强国,在经济不景气之下,還维持贸易顺差的最顶点。(即是刻意压低人民币汇值)

美国在次货危机爆发后,美国当机立断大量舉债和降低联邦准息到接近零點,开动美国式印钞,在过去两年,TARP总共救助金融机构達8.1兆美元,而美国在今年预算需要3.5兆美元,背后的债务还有总共12兆美元。比其2002年的6.2兆美元还高两倍。美国到底在2010年还有什么假动作能说服投资者继续购买美国国债?同一时间,美元利差交易和卖空让美元持续贬值,除了能減少美元债務,还可能刺激通货膨胀以减少国内债务?还是利差交易热钱在全球资产经济過热下,突然加息?美元回归除了能减少通货膨胀,还可能制造中国资产和股市崩溃后廉价收购资产?美国会是下半场的赢家吗?




美国的2007债卷危机其实是归否于过量的借貨泡沫,当中还包括Alt-A和Sub Prime次代贷款。這两种次貨的利息都有共同点那即是3,5,7年的调整利息(ARM)还有Options ARM。根据Credit Swisse的报告,以下的图,藍条就是Options ARM的到期月份,Options ARM将会从2010开始第二波的次货毁约潮至2011年最高峰期。至今因Option ARM引发问题的货款大约有500亿美元,60%来自加州。一些专家认为次货毁约潮将会空前的高(大约70%),如果真的发生,又有多少银行和对冲基金将面临倒闭?又有多少美国居民将流失居所?



『4664』婴儿潮人口是目前美国经济的支柱,他们乐观和奢侈的性格,造就美国的消费经济,如图下一生人的最高消费大约是在46歲,而4664的最高人口根据图2是在1963-64年。如果继续推算下去,2009-2010年就是消费开始下跌的时候了。美国是靠消费拉动经济的国家。如果在人口老化,美国国内的消费经济是很难维持。那些依赖美国進口的出口国又如何呢?在产能开始過剩下,世界的经济会被影响吗?







嘿,在我們这些凡夫俗子想的到的东西,美国佬会不知道吗?很可能,庄家会一直唱多頭下去,让所有的人真的相信经济好转的时候,再来让经济真正大萧条。可想像的到,2010-2011年将会是『波涛汹涌』的一年。你准备好了在这凶年赚大钱吗?